Asteroid and Mission Swaps: This Week in Space

Asteroid Under Observation

The calculated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in late 2032 rose to 2.3% a few weeks ago, up from the previous 1.9%. While this remains a very low probability—meaning a 97.7% chance that the asteroid will pass by without impact—astronomers continue to track it, collecting more data on its size and trajectory for more precise calculations.

Currently, the asteroid is moving away from Earth and will become unobservable from April until June 2028. About a month after reappearing, it will pass at a distance of approximately 120 million kilometers from Earth before continuing its orbit around the Sun, returning again in late 2032.

Asteroid tracking experts caution that while the calculated risk may rise further initially, it is highly likely that as observations and calculations improve, the probability of an impact will eventually drop to zero.

With an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters, the asteroid could cause significant local damage if it struck land, potentially devastating a city if it is on the larger end of that range. However, since most of Earth's surface is sparsely populated, an impact is far more likely to occur in an uninhabited area or the ocean rather than in a major city. Additionally, with sufficient warning, people could be evacuated from the projected impact zone, infrastructure could be protected, preparations could be made for potential tsunamis, and overall damage could be minimized.

NASA has announced that next month, the James Webb Space Telescope will be directed to observe the asteroid. Because Webb operates in the infrared spectrum, it must observe at low temperatures and face away from the Sun, limiting its field of view. A key challenge in determining the asteroid’s true size is uncertainty about its composition and how its surface reflects sunlight. A small but highly reflective asteroid could appear, from a distance, similar in brightness to a larger but darker asteroid. James Webb’s high-magnification infrared observations could provide a more accurate estimate of the asteroid’s size and possibly its composition, helping refine trajectory predictions.

The calculated risk may rise initially, but with improved observations and calculations, it is expected to drop to zero.

Flight Schedule Changes

NASA and SpaceX have announced a replacement of the Dragon spacecraft assigned to launch the next crew to the International Space Station (ISS). This change will slightly accelerate the crew swap, which is currently scheduled for late March. The mission, the tenth crewed launch to the ISS since NASA resumed astronaut flights with SpaceX’s Dragon, was originally set for early February. However, at the end of last year, the launch was postponed to late March because the new Dragon spacecraft intended for the mission was not yet ready.

This week, NASA and SpaceX confirmed that the tenth crew will instead fly aboard the veteran Dragon spacecraft "Endurance", which was originally assigned to launch Axiom Space's private Ax-4 mission to the ISS in April.

The tenth crew will replace the ninth crew, which includes two astronauts from Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore arrived at the ISS aboard Starliner in June 2024, but the spacecraft returned empty in September due to NASA’s safety concerns. As a result, the two astronauts remained aboard the ISS, taking the place of two other crew members who stayed on Earth. Originally scheduled for an eight-day mission, they have now spent at least nine months in space.

It is still unclear how the spacecraft swap will affect the launch date of Axiom Space's private mission, which was originally planned for April and has now been postponed to at least May. The Ax-4 mission, led by veteran astronaut Peggy Whitson—who transitioned from NASA to Axiom Space—will include three crew members from India, Poland, and Hungary. Unlike previous Axiom missions, where private individuals self-funded their spaceflights, this crew is composed of astronauts selected through their respective national space programs.

The tenth crew will replace the ninth crew, which includes two astronauts from Boeing's "Starliner" spacecraft. Sunita Williams, who has been aboard the ISS since June 2024, speaking with students from Indonesia. NASA.

The Next Blue

Blue Origin is expected to attempt another launch of its heavy-lift rocket, New Glenn, in the coming months. During its maiden voyage about a month ago, the rocket successfully reached Earth orbit, but its first stage, which was meant to land on a sea platform, exploded and was lost.

Speaking at a conference in Washington last week, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp  stated that the first-stage failure was related to fuel flow to the engines. “We think we understand what the issues are," he said, adding that he preferred not to go into details since the investigation is still ongoing. "I feel like the team has a really good handle to it and modifications are not complicated."

Limp noted that a new first stage is already in production and expressed confidence that the setback would not delay the next launch. “I don’t think it’s going to delay our path to flight, I think we can still fly late spring,” he said. 

The company has not yet officially announced the payload for this flight. Limp only commented that the company has a “couple of different options,” adding, “We sort of treat the first three flights as development flights. If we can get commercial payloads on them, we will do so. If it came to it and we just had to fly a mass simulator, we’ll fly a mass simulator.”

In an upcoming New Glenn launch, Blue Origin is expected to conduct a test flight of its uncrewed lunar lander, currently known as Mark 1. This robotic lander is designed to test technologies for its larger, crewed counterpart, which Blue Origin is developing for NASA’s Artemis program.

SpaceX was selected to provide the first human landing system for the initial crewed Moon landings, while Blue Origin’s lander is expected to be used for later missions. Limp did not provide further details about the lunar lander program but stated, "I am still very confident that we can land on the Moon this year."

Video of New Glenn's first launch:

Dark Matters

American astronomer Vera Rubin was a pioneering scientist, best known for uncovering evidence of what is now called "dark matter"—the mysterious, unexplained mass that influences the rotation of galaxies. After her death in 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) named their large-scale sky survey observatory in Chile in her honor. However, U.S. astronomers are now criticizing the observatory for altering Rubin’s biography on its official website in response to new policy guidelines from the current administration in Washington.

Beyond being a scientific trailblazer, Rubin was also a fierce advocate for advancing women in science, particularly in astronomy. She became the first woman allowed to operate the giant telescope at California's Palomar Observatory—once the largest and most significant telescope in the U.S. At the time, the observatory didn’t even have women’s restrooms, so Rubin fashioned a skirt shape from paper, taped it onto the men’s restroom door, and claimed the space. Rubin also made it a point to review participant lists at scientific conferences, reaching out to organizers when female scientists were notably absent.

Rubin’s biography on the observatory’s website still includes a section titled "She advocated for women in science." However, this part has been shortened and now focuses mostly on the challenges she faced as a woman, reducing mention of her efforts to help others. Among the passages removed was:

"Science is still a male-dominated field, but Rubin Observatory is working to increase participation from women and other people who have historically been excluded from science. Rubin observatory welcomes everyone who wants to contribute to science and takes steps to lower or eliminate barriers that exclude those with less privilege."

Additionally, the line "Vera herself offers an excellent example of what can happen when more minds participate in science" was changed to "...what can happen when many minds participate in science," removing the emphasis on diversity.

"This is the story of what happened in her life," said radio astronomer Yvette Cendes at the University of Oregon. "She was a huge champion for women in science in particular because she faced things that were discriminatory for women — diminishing those stories is pretty disturbing, frankly."

"No executive order, no political edict is going to undermine or end our efforts to make the scientific workforce look more like our people," said astronomer John Barentine. "If anything, it is giving us more encouragement to continue to do this work, because it is the morally, philosophically and politically right thing to do. We have a long road ahead and I expect there'll be times when that road will be very difficult to walk. Astronomy is not going to let Vera's contributions be forgotten,”

Beyond being a scientific pioneer, Rubin was also a relentless advocate for women in science, particularly in astronomy. Rubin in a Washington, D.C. laboratory, 1974. Wikimedia, NOIRLab/NSF/AURA.